Actual source code: ex1.c

  1: /* Data assimilation framework header (provides PetscDA) */
  2: #include <petscda.h>
  3: /* PETSc DMDA header (provides DM, DMDA functionality) */
  4: #include <petscdmda.h>
  5: #include <petscts.h>
  6: #include <petscvec.h>

  8: static char help[] = "Deterministic ETKF example for the Lorenz-96 model. See "
  9:                      "Algorithm 6.4 of \n"
 10:                      "Asch, Bocquet, and Nodet (2016) \"Data Assimilation\" "
 11:                      "(SIAM, doi:10.1137/1.9781611974546).\n\n"
 12:                      "  Note: Asch et al. run Lorenz-96 for 100,000 steps, but our ensemble collapses.\n\n";

 14: /* \begin{algorithm}
 15: \caption{Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) - Deterministic}
 16: \begin{algorithmic}[1]
 17: \State \textbf{Initialize:} Ensemble $\mathbf{E}_0 = [\mathbf{x}_0^{(1)}, \ldots, \mathbf{x}_0^{(m)}]$ \Comment{$\mathbf{E}_0 \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times m}$}
 18: \For{$k = 1, 2, \ldots, K$}
 19:     \State \textbf{// Forecast Step}
 20:     \For{$i = 1$ to $m$}
 21:         \State $\mathbf{x}_k^{f,(i)} = \mathcal{M}_{k-1}(\mathbf{x}_{k-1}^{a,(i)})$ \Comment{$\mathbf{x}_k^{f,(i)} \in \mathbb{R}^{n}$}
 22:     \EndFor
 23:     \State Assemble forecast matrix: $\mathbf{E}_k^f = [\mathbf{x}_k^{f,(1)}, \ldots, \mathbf{x}_k^{f,(m)}]$ \Comment{$\mathbf{E}_k^f \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times m}$}
 24:     \State
 25:     \State \textbf{// Analysis Step (if observation available)}
 26:     \If{observation $\mathbf{y}_k$ available}
 27:         \State Compute ensemble mean: $\overline{\mathbf{x}}_k^f = \frac{1}{m}\sum_{i=1}^m \mathbf{x}_k^{f,(i)}$ \Comment{$\overline{\mathbf{x}}_k^f \in \mathbb{R}^{n}$}
 28:         \State Compute anomalies: $\mathbf{X}_k = \frac{1}{\sqrt{m-1}}(\mathbf{E}_k^f - \overline{\mathbf{x}}_k^f \mathbf{1}^T)$ \Comment{$\mathbf{X}_k \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times m}$}
 29:         \State Apply observation operator: $\mathbf{Z}_k = \mathcal{H}(\mathbf{E}_k^f)$ \Comment{$\mathbf{Z}_k \in \mathbb{R}^{b \times m}$}
 30:         \State Compute obs ensemble mean: $\overline{\mathbf{y}}_k = \frac{1}{m}\sum_{i=1}^m \mathcal{H}(\mathbf{x}_k^{f,(i)})$ \Comment{$\overline{\mathbf{y}}_k \in \mathbb{R}^{b}$}
 31:         \State Compute obs anomalies: $\mathbf{S}_k = \frac{1}{\sqrt{m-1}}\mathbf{R}^{-1/2}(\mathbf{Z}_k - \overline{\mathbf{y}}_k\mathbf{1}^T)$ \Comment{$\mathbf{S}_k \in \mathbb{R}^{b \times m}$}
 32:         \State Compute raw innovation: $\boldsymbol{\delta}_k = \mathbf{y}_k - \overline{\mathbf{y}}_k$ \Comment{$\boldsymbol{\delta}_k \in \mathbb{R}^{b}$}
 33:         \State Whiten innovation: $\tilde{\boldsymbol{\delta}}_k = \mathbf{R}^{-1/2}\boldsymbol{\delta}_k$ \Comment{$\tilde{\boldsymbol{\delta}}_k \in \mathbb{R}^{b}$}
 34:         \State Compute transform matrix: $\mathbf{T}_k = (\mathbf{I}_m + \mathbf{S}_k^T\mathbf{S}_k)^{-1}$ \Comment{$\mathbf{T}_k \in \mathbb{R}^{m \times m}$}
 35:         \State Compute weight vector: $\mathbf{w}_k = \mathbf{T}_k \mathbf{S}_k^T \tilde{\boldsymbol{\delta}}_k$ \Comment{$\mathbf{w}_k \in \mathbb{R}^{m}$}
 36:         \State Form deterministic map: $\mathbf{G}_k = \mathbf{w}_k\mathbf{1}^T + \sqrt{m-1}\,\mathbf{T}_k^{1/2}$ \Comment{$\mathbf{G}_k \in \mathbb{R}^{m \times m}$, $\mathbf{U} = \mathbf{I}_m$}
 37:         \State Update ensemble: $\mathbf{E}_k^a = \overline{\mathbf{x}}_k^f\mathbf{1}^T + \mathbf{X}_k \mathbf{G}_k$ \Comment{$\mathbf{E}_k^a \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times m}$}
 38:     \Else
 39:         \State $\mathbf{E}_k^a = \mathbf{E}_k^f$ \Comment{$\mathbf{E}_k^a \in \mathbb{R}^{n \times m}$}
 40:     \EndIf
 41: \EndFor
 42: \end{algorithmic}
 43: \end{algorithm}
 44:  */

 46: /* Default parameter values */
 47: #define DEFAULT_N             40
 48: #define DEFAULT_STEPS         105000
 49: #define DEFAULT_BURN          5000
 50: #define DEFAULT_OBS_FREQ      1
 51: #define DEFAULT_RANDOM_SEED   12345
 52: #define DEFAULT_F             8.0
 53: #define DEFAULT_DT            0.05
 54: #define DEFAULT_OBS_ERROR_STD 1.0
 55: #define DEFAULT_ENSEMBLE_SIZE 30
 56: #define SPINUP_STEPS          0

 58: /* Minimum valid parameter values */
 59: #define MIN_N              1
 60: #define MIN_ENSEMBLE_SIZE  2
 61: #define MIN_OBS_FREQ       1
 62: #define PROGRESS_INTERVALS 10

 64: typedef struct {
 65:   DM        da; /* 1D periodic DM storing the Lorenz-96 state */
 66:   PetscInt  n;  /* State dimension (number of grid points) */
 67:   PetscReal F;  /* Constant forcing term in the Lorenz-96 equations */
 68:   PetscReal dt; /* Integration time step size */
 69:   TS        ts; /* Reusable time stepper for efficiency */
 70: } Lorenz96Ctx;

 72: /*
 73:   Lorenz96RHS - Compute the right-hand side of the Lorenz-96 equations

 75:   Input Parameters:
 76: + ts    - The time-stepping context (unused but required by interface)
 77: . t     - Current time (unused but required by interface)
 78: . X     - State vector
 79: - ctx   - User context (Lorenz96Ctx)

 81:   Output Parameter:
 82: . F_vec - RHS vector (tendency)
 83: */
 84: static PetscErrorCode Lorenz96RHS(TS ts, PetscReal t, Vec X, Vec F_vec, PetscCtx ctx)
 85: {
 86:   Lorenz96Ctx       *l95 = (Lorenz96Ctx *)ctx;
 87:   Vec                X_local;
 88:   const PetscScalar *x;
 89:   PetscScalar       *f;
 90:   PetscInt           xs, xm, i;

 92:   PetscFunctionBeginUser;
 93:   (void)ts; /* Mark as intentionally unused to avoid compiler warnings */
 94:   (void)t;

 96:   /* Work with a local (ghosted) vector so the Lorenz-96 stencil has the
 97:    * required neighbors for periodic boundary conditions. */
 98:   PetscCall(DMDAGetCorners(l95->da, &xs, NULL, NULL, &xm, NULL, NULL));
 99:   PetscCall(DMGetLocalVector(l95->da, &X_local));
100:   PetscCall(DMGlobalToLocalBegin(l95->da, X, INSERT_VALUES, X_local));
101:   PetscCall(DMGlobalToLocalEnd(l95->da, X, INSERT_VALUES, X_local));
102:   PetscCall(DMDAVecGetArrayRead(l95->da, X_local, &x));
103:   PetscCall(DMDAVecGetArray(l95->da, F_vec, &f));

105:   /* Standard Lorenz-96 tendency: (x_{i+1} - x_{i-2}) * x_{i-1} - x_i + F. */
106:   for (i = xs; i < xs + xm; i++) f[i] = (x[i + 1] - x[i - 2]) * x[i - 1] - x[i] + l95->F;

108:   PetscCall(DMDAVecRestoreArrayRead(l95->da, X_local, &x));
109:   PetscCall(DMDAVecRestoreArray(l95->da, F_vec, &f));
110:   PetscCall(DMRestoreLocalVector(l95->da, &X_local));
111:   PetscFunctionReturn(PETSC_SUCCESS);
112: }

114: /*
115:   Lorenz96ContextCreate - Create and initialize a Lorenz96 context with reusable TS object

117:   Input Parameters:
118: + da - DM for state space
119: . n  - State dimension
120: . F  - Forcing parameter
121: . dt - Time step size

123:   Output Parameter:
124: . ctx - Initialized Lorenz96 context
125: */
126: static PetscErrorCode Lorenz96ContextCreate(DM da, PetscInt n, PetscReal F, PetscReal dt, Lorenz96Ctx **ctx)
127: {
128:   Lorenz96Ctx *l95;

130:   PetscFunctionBeginUser;
131:   PetscCall(PetscNew(&l95));
132:   l95->da = da;
133:   l95->n  = n;
134:   l95->F  = F;
135:   l95->dt = dt;

137:   /* Create and configure a reusable time stepper to avoid repeated allocation/deallocation */
138:   PetscCall(TSCreate(PetscObjectComm((PetscObject)da), &l95->ts));
139:   PetscCall(TSSetProblemType(l95->ts, TS_NONLINEAR));
140:   PetscCall(TSSetRHSFunction(l95->ts, NULL, Lorenz96RHS, l95));
141:   PetscCall(TSSetType(l95->ts, TSRK));
142:   PetscCall(TSRKSetType(l95->ts, TSRK4));
143:   PetscCall(TSSetTimeStep(l95->ts, dt));
144:   PetscCall(TSSetMaxTime(l95->ts, dt));
145:   PetscCall(TSSetExactFinalTime(l95->ts, TS_EXACTFINALTIME_MATCHSTEP));
146:   PetscCall(TSSetFromOptions(l95->ts));

148:   *ctx = l95;
149:   PetscFunctionReturn(PETSC_SUCCESS);
150: }

152: /*
153:   Lorenz96ContextDestroy - Destroy a Lorenz96 context and its TS object
154: */
155: static PetscErrorCode Lorenz96ContextDestroy(Lorenz96Ctx **ctx)
156: {
157:   PetscFunctionBeginUser;
158:   if (!ctx || !*ctx) PetscFunctionReturn(PETSC_SUCCESS);
159:   PetscCall(TSDestroy(&(*ctx)->ts));
160:   PetscCall(PetscFree(*ctx));
161:   PetscFunctionReturn(PETSC_SUCCESS);
162: }

164: /*
165:   Lorenz96Step - Advance state vector one time step using Lorenz-96 dynamics

167:   Input Parameters:
168: + input - state vector to be advanced
169: - ctx   - Lorenz96 context (contains reusable TS)

171:   Output Parameter:
172: . output - state vector after one time step

174:   Notes:
175:   Uses a single explicit RK4 step with the pre-configured TS object for efficiency.
176: */
177: static PetscErrorCode Lorenz96Step(Vec input, Vec output, PetscCtx ctx)
178: {
179:   Lorenz96Ctx *l95 = (Lorenz96Ctx *)ctx;

181:   PetscFunctionBeginUser;
182:   /* Reset the TS time for each integration */
183:   PetscCall(TSSetTime(l95->ts, 0.0));
184:   if (input != output) PetscCall(VecCopy(input, output));
185:   PetscCall(TSSolve(l95->ts, output));
186:   PetscFunctionReturn(PETSC_SUCCESS);
187: }

189: /*
190:   CreateIdentityObservationMatrix - Create identity observation matrix H for Lorenz-96

192:   For the fully observed case, H is an nxn identity matrix representing y = H*x where
193:   each observation corresponds directly to a state variable.

195:   Input Parameter:
196: . n - State dimension (number of grid points)

198:   Output Parameter:
199: . H - Identity observation matrix (n x n), sparse AIJ format
200: */
201: static PetscErrorCode CreateIdentityObservationMatrix(PetscInt n, Mat *H)
202: {
203:   PetscFunctionBeginUser;
204:   /* Create identity observation matrix H (n x n) */
205:   PetscCall(MatCreateAIJ(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, PETSC_DECIDE, PETSC_DECIDE, n, n, 1, NULL, 0, NULL, H));
206:   PetscCall(MatSetFromOptions(*H));

208:   /* Set diagonal entries to 1.0 for identity mapping */
209:   for (PetscInt i = 0; i < n; i++) PetscCall(MatSetValue(*H, i, i, 1.0, INSERT_VALUES));

211:   PetscCall(MatAssemblyBegin(*H, MAT_FINAL_ASSEMBLY));
212:   PetscCall(MatAssemblyEnd(*H, MAT_FINAL_ASSEMBLY));
213:   PetscFunctionReturn(PETSC_SUCCESS);
214: }

216: /*
217:   ValidateParameters - Validate input parameters and apply constraints

219:   Input/Output Parameters:
220: + n             - State dimension
221: . steps         - Number of time steps
222: . burn          - Burn-in steps
223: . obs_freq      - Observation frequency
224: . ensemble_size - Ensemble size
225: . dt            - Time step
226: . F             - Forcing parameter
227: - obs_error_std - Observation error standard deviation

229:   This routine should be reduced/eliminated. It is the job of PETSc functions to validate input, not the tutorials code
230: */
231: static PetscErrorCode ValidateParameters(PetscInt *n, PetscInt *steps, PetscInt *burn, PetscInt *obs_freq, PetscInt *ensemble_size, PetscReal *dt, PetscReal *F, PetscReal *obs_error_std)
232: {
233:   PetscFunctionBeginUser;
234:   /* Validate and constrain integer parameters */
235:   PetscCheck(*n > 0, PETSC_COMM_WORLD, PETSC_ERR_ARG_OUTOFRANGE, "State dimension n must be positive, got %" PetscInt_FMT, *n);
236:   PetscCheck(*steps >= 0, PETSC_COMM_WORLD, PETSC_ERR_ARG_OUTOFRANGE, "Number of steps must be non-negative, got %" PetscInt_FMT, *steps);
237:   PetscCheck(*ensemble_size >= MIN_ENSEMBLE_SIZE, PETSC_COMM_WORLD, PETSC_ERR_ARG_OUTOFRANGE, "Ensemble size must be at least %" PetscInt_FMT " for meaningful statistics, got %" PetscInt_FMT, (PetscInt)MIN_ENSEMBLE_SIZE, *ensemble_size);

239:   /* Apply constraints */
240:   if (*obs_freq < MIN_OBS_FREQ) {
241:     PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "Warning: Observation frequency adjusted from %" PetscInt_FMT " to %" PetscInt_FMT "\n", *obs_freq, (PetscInt)MIN_OBS_FREQ));
242:     *obs_freq = MIN_OBS_FREQ;
243:   }
244:   if (*obs_freq > *steps && *steps > 0) PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "Warning: Observation frequency (%" PetscInt_FMT ") > total steps (%" PetscInt_FMT "), no observations will be assimilated.\n", *obs_freq, *steps));
245:   if (*burn > *steps) {
246:     PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "Warning: Burn-in steps (%" PetscInt_FMT ") exceeds total steps (%" PetscInt_FMT "), setting burn = steps\n", *burn, *steps));
247:     *burn = *steps;
248:   }

250:   /* Validate real-valued parameters */
251:   PetscCheck(*dt > 0.0, PETSC_COMM_WORLD, PETSC_ERR_ARG_OUTOFRANGE, "Time step dt must be positive, got %g", (double)*dt);
252:   PetscCheck(*obs_error_std > 0.0, PETSC_COMM_WORLD, PETSC_ERR_ARG_OUTOFRANGE, "Observation error std must be positive, got %g", (double)*obs_error_std);
253:   PetscCheck(PetscIsNormalReal(*F), PETSC_COMM_WORLD, PETSC_ERR_ARG_OUTOFRANGE, "Forcing parameter F must be a normal real number");
254:   PetscFunctionReturn(PETSC_SUCCESS);
255: }

257: /*
258:   ComputeRMSE - Compute root mean square error between two vectors

260:   Input Parameters:
261: + v1 - First vector
262: . v2 - Second vector
263: - n  - Vector dimension (for normalization)

265:   Output Parameter:
266: . rmse - Root mean square error
267: */
268: static PetscErrorCode ComputeRMSE(Vec v1, Vec v2, Vec work, PetscInt n, PetscReal *rmse)
269: {
270:   PetscReal norm;

272:   PetscFunctionBeginUser;
273:   PetscCall(VecWAXPY(work, -1.0, v2, v1));
274:   PetscCall(VecNorm(work, NORM_2, &norm));
275:   *rmse = norm / PetscSqrtReal((PetscReal)n);
276:   PetscFunctionReturn(PETSC_SUCCESS);
277: }

279: int main(int argc, char **argv)
280: {
281:   /* Configuration parameters */
282:   PetscInt  n                 = DEFAULT_N;
283:   PetscInt  steps             = DEFAULT_STEPS;
284:   PetscInt  burn              = DEFAULT_BURN;
285:   PetscInt  obs_freq          = DEFAULT_OBS_FREQ;
286:   PetscInt  random_seed       = DEFAULT_RANDOM_SEED;
287:   PetscInt  ensemble_size     = DEFAULT_ENSEMBLE_SIZE;
288:   PetscReal F                 = DEFAULT_F;
289:   PetscReal dt                = DEFAULT_DT;
290:   PetscReal obs_error_std     = DEFAULT_OBS_ERROR_STD;
291:   PetscReal ensemble_init_std = 1; /* Initial ensemble spread */

293:   /* PETSc objects */
294:   Lorenz96Ctx *l95_ctx = NULL, *truth_ctx = NULL;
295:   DM           da_state;
296:   PetscDA      da;
297:   Vec          x0, x_mean, x_forecast;
298:   Vec          truth_state, rmse_work;
299:   Vec          observation, obs_noise, obs_error_var;
300:   PetscRandom  rng;
301:   Mat          H = NULL; /* Observation operator matrix */

303:   /* Statistics tracking */
304:   PetscReal rmse_forecast = 0.0, rmse_analysis = 0.0;
305:   PetscReal sum_rmse_forecast = 0.0, sum_rmse_analysis = 0.0;
306:   PetscInt  n_stat_steps = 0;
307:   PetscInt  obs_count    = 0;
308:   PetscInt  step, progress_interval;

310:   PetscFunctionBeginUser;
311:   PetscCall(PetscInitialize(&argc, &argv, NULL, help));

313:   /* Parse command-line options */
314:   PetscOptionsBegin(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, NULL, "Lorenz-96 ETKF Quick Example", NULL);
315:   PetscCall(PetscOptionsInt("-n", "State dimension", "", n, &n, NULL));
316:   PetscCall(PetscOptionsInt("-steps", "Number of time steps", "", steps, &steps, NULL));
317:   PetscCall(PetscOptionsInt("-burn", "Burn-in steps excluded from statistics", "", burn, &burn, NULL));
318:   PetscCall(PetscOptionsInt("-obs_freq", "Observation frequency", "", obs_freq, &obs_freq, NULL));
319:   PetscCall(PetscOptionsReal("-F", "Forcing parameter", "", F, &F, NULL));
320:   PetscCall(PetscOptionsReal("-dt", "Time step size", "", dt, &dt, NULL));
321:   PetscCall(PetscOptionsReal("-obs_error", "Observation error standard deviation", "", obs_error_std, &obs_error_std, NULL));
322:   PetscCall(PetscOptionsReal("-ensemble_init_std", "Initial ensemble spread standard deviation", "", ensemble_init_std, &ensemble_init_std, NULL));
323:   PetscCall(PetscOptionsInt("-random_seed", "Random seed for ensemble perturbations", "", random_seed, &random_seed, NULL));
324:   PetscOptionsEnd();

326:   /* Validate and constrain parameters */
327:   PetscCall(ValidateParameters(&n, &steps, &burn, &obs_freq, &ensemble_size, &dt, &F, &obs_error_std));

329:   /* Calculate progress reporting interval (avoid division by zero) */
330:   progress_interval = (steps >= PROGRESS_INTERVALS) ? (steps / PROGRESS_INTERVALS) : 1;

332:   /* Create 1D periodic DM for state space */
333:   PetscCall(DMDACreate1d(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, DM_BOUNDARY_PERIODIC, n, 1, 2, NULL, &da_state));
334:   PetscCall(DMSetFromOptions(da_state));
335:   PetscCall(DMSetUp(da_state));
336:   PetscCall(DMDASetUniformCoordinates(da_state, 0.0, (PetscReal)n, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0));

338:   /* Create Lorenz96 context with reusable TS object */
339:   PetscCall(Lorenz96ContextCreate(da_state, n, F, dt, &l95_ctx));
340:   PetscCall(Lorenz96ContextCreate(da_state, n, F, dt, &truth_ctx));

342:   /* Initialize random number generator */
343:   PetscCall(PetscRandomCreate(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, &rng));
344:   PetscCall(PetscRandomSetSeed(rng, (unsigned long)random_seed));
345:   PetscCall(PetscRandomSetFromOptions(rng));
346:   PetscCall(PetscRandomSeed(rng));

348:   /* Initialize state vectors */
349:   PetscCall(DMCreateGlobalVector(da_state, &x0));
350:   PetscCall(PetscRandomSetInterval(rng, -.1 * F, .1 * F));
351:   PetscCall(VecSetRandom(x0, rng));
352:   PetscCall(PetscRandomSetInterval(rng, 0, 1));

354:   /* Initialize truth trajectory */
355:   PetscCall(VecDuplicate(x0, &truth_state));
356:   PetscCall(VecCopy(x0, truth_state));
357:   PetscCall(VecDuplicate(x0, &rmse_work));

359:   /* Spin up truth to get onto attractor */
360:   PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "Spinning up truth for %" PetscInt_FMT " steps...\n", (PetscInt)SPINUP_STEPS));
361:   for (PetscInt k = 0; k < SPINUP_STEPS; k++) PetscCall(Lorenz96Step(truth_state, truth_state, truth_ctx));

363:   /* Initialize observation vectors */
364:   PetscCall(VecDuplicate(x0, &observation));
365:   PetscCall(VecDuplicate(x0, &obs_noise));
366:   PetscCall(VecDuplicate(x0, &obs_error_var));
367:   PetscCall(VecSet(obs_error_var, obs_error_std * obs_error_std));

369:   /* Initialize ensemble statistics vectors */
370:   PetscCall(VecDuplicate(x0, &x_mean));
371:   PetscCall(VecDuplicate(x0, &x_forecast));

373:   /* Create identity observation matrix H */
374:   PetscCall(CreateIdentityObservationMatrix(n, &H));

376:   /* Create and configure PetscDA for ensemble data assimilation */
377:   PetscCall(PetscDACreate(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, &da));
378:   PetscCall(PetscDASetType(da, PETSCDAETKF)); /* Set ETKF type */
379:   PetscCall(PetscDASetSizes(da, n, n));
380:   PetscCall(PetscDAEnsembleSetSize(da, ensemble_size));
381:   PetscCall(PetscDASetFromOptions(da));
382:   PetscCall(PetscDAEnsembleGetSize(da, &ensemble_size));
383:   PetscCall(PetscDASetUp(da));
384:   PetscCall(PetscDAViewFromOptions(da, NULL, "-petscda_view"));
385:   PetscCall(PetscDASetObsErrorVariance(da, obs_error_var));

387:   /* Initialize ensemble members from spun-up truth state with appropriate spread */
388:   PetscCall(PetscDAEnsembleInitialize(da, truth_state, ensemble_init_std, rng));

390:   /* Print configuration summary */
391:   PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "Lorenz-96 ETKF Example\n"));
392:   PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "======================\n"));
393:   PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD,
394:                         "  State dimension       : %" PetscInt_FMT "\n"
395:                         "  Ensemble size         : %" PetscInt_FMT "\n"
396:                         "  Forcing parameter (F) : %.4f\n"
397:                         "  Time step (dt)        : %.4f\n"
398:                         "  Total steps           : %" PetscInt_FMT "\n"
399:                         "  Burn-in steps         : %" PetscInt_FMT "\n"
400:                         "  Observation frequency : %" PetscInt_FMT "\n"
401:                         "  Observation noise std : %.3f\n"
402:                         "  Ensemble init std     : %.3f\n"
403:                         "  Random seed           : %" PetscInt_FMT "\n\n",
404:                         n, ensemble_size, (double)F, (double)dt, steps, burn, obs_freq, (double)obs_error_std, (double)ensemble_init_std, random_seed));

406:   /* Main assimilation cycle: forecast and analysis steps */
407:   for (step = 0; step <= steps; step++) {
408:     PetscReal time = step * dt;

410:     /* Forecast step: compute ensemble mean and forecast RMSE */
411:     PetscCall(PetscDAEnsembleComputeMean(da, x_mean));
412:     PetscCall(VecCopy(x_mean, x_forecast));
413:     PetscCall(ComputeRMSE(x_forecast, truth_state, rmse_work, n, &rmse_forecast));
414:     rmse_analysis = rmse_forecast; /* Default to forecast RMSE if no analysis */

416:     /* Analysis step: assimilate observations when available */
417:     if (step % obs_freq == 0 && step > 0) {
418:       /* Generate synthetic noisy observations from truth */
419:       PetscCall(VecSetRandomGaussian(obs_noise, rng, 0.0, obs_error_std));
420:       PetscCall(VecWAXPY(observation, 1.0, obs_noise, truth_state));

422:       /* Perform ETKF analysis with observation matrix H */
423:       PetscCall(PetscDAEnsembleAnalysis(da, observation, H));

425:       /* Compute analysis RMSE */
426:       PetscCall(PetscDAEnsembleComputeMean(da, x_mean));
427:       PetscCall(ComputeRMSE(x_mean, truth_state, rmse_work, n, &rmse_analysis));
428:       obs_count++;
429:     }

431:     /* Accumulate statistics after burn-in period */
432:     if (step >= burn) {
433:       sum_rmse_forecast += rmse_forecast;
434:       sum_rmse_analysis += rmse_analysis;
435:       n_stat_steps++;
436:     }

438:     /* Progress reporting */
439:     if ((step % progress_interval == 0) || (step == steps) || (step == 0)) {
440:       PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "Step %4" PetscInt_FMT ", time %6.3f  RMSE_forecast %.5f  RMSE_analysis %.5f%s\n", step, (double)time, (double)rmse_forecast, (double)rmse_analysis, (step < burn) ? " [burn-in]" : ""));
441:     }

443:     /* Propagate ensemble and truth trajectory */
444:     if (step < steps) {
445:       PetscCall(PetscDAEnsembleForecast(da, Lorenz96Step, l95_ctx));
446:       PetscCall(Lorenz96Step(truth_state, truth_state, truth_ctx));
447:     }
448:   }

450:   /* Report final statistics */
451:   if (n_stat_steps > 0) {
452:     PetscReal avg_rmse_forecast = sum_rmse_forecast / n_stat_steps;
453:     PetscReal avg_rmse_analysis = sum_rmse_analysis / n_stat_steps;
454:     PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "\nStatistics (%" PetscInt_FMT " post-burn-in steps):\n", n_stat_steps));
455:     PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "==================================================\n"));
456:     PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "  Mean RMSE (forecast) : %.5f\n", (double)avg_rmse_forecast));
457:     PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "  Mean RMSE (analysis) : %.5f\n", (double)avg_rmse_analysis));
458:     PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "  Observations used    : %" PetscInt_FMT "\n\n", obs_count));
459:   } else {
460:     PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "\nWarning: No post-burn-in statistics collected (burn >= steps)\n\n"));
461:   }

463:   /* Test VecSetRandomGaussian to verify Gaussian distribution */
464:   {
465:     Vec          test_vec;
466:     PetscInt     test_size = 10000; /* Large sample for statistical testing */
467:     PetscScalar *array;
468:     PetscReal    mean_target = 2.0, std_target = 1.5;
469:     PetscReal    sample_mean = 0.0, sample_variance = 0.0, sample_std;
470:     PetscReal    skewness = 0.0, kurtosis = 0.0;
471:     PetscBool    test_gaussian = PETSC_FALSE;

473:     PetscCall(PetscOptionsGetBool(NULL, NULL, "-test_gaussian", &test_gaussian, NULL));

475:     if (test_gaussian) {
476:       PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "\n==============================================\n"));
477:       PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "Testing VecSetRandomGaussian\n"));
478:       PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "==============================================\n"));

480:       /* Create test vector */
481:       PetscCall(VecCreate(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, &test_vec));
482:       PetscCall(VecSetSizes(test_vec, PETSC_DECIDE, test_size));
483:       PetscCall(VecSetFromOptions(test_vec));

485:       /* Generate Gaussian random numbers */
486:       PetscCall(VecSetRandomGaussian(test_vec, rng, mean_target, std_target));

488:       /* Get array for statistical analysis */
489:       PetscCall(VecGetArray(test_vec, &array));

491:       /* Compute sample mean */
492:       for (PetscInt i = 0; i < test_size; i++) sample_mean += PetscRealPart(array[i]);
493:       sample_mean /= test_size;

495:       /* Compute sample variance and higher moments */
496:       for (PetscInt i = 0; i < test_size; i++) {
497:         PetscReal diff  = PetscRealPart(array[i]) - sample_mean;
498:         PetscReal diff2 = diff * diff;
499:         sample_variance += diff2;
500:         skewness += diff * diff2;
501:         kurtosis += diff2 * diff2;
502:       }
503:       sample_variance /= (test_size - 1);
504:       sample_std = PetscSqrtReal(sample_variance);

506:       /* Normalize skewness and kurtosis */
507:       skewness = (skewness / test_size) / PetscPowReal(sample_std, 3.0);
508:       kurtosis = (kurtosis / test_size) / PetscPowReal(sample_std, 4.0) - 3.0; /* Excess kurtosis */

510:       PetscCall(VecRestoreArray(test_vec, &array));

512:       /* Report results */
513:       PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "\nTarget parameters:\n"));
514:       PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "  Mean      : %.6f\n", (double)mean_target));
515:       PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "  Std Dev   : %.6f\n", (double)std_target));

517:       PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "\nSample statistics (n=%" PetscInt_FMT "):\n", (PetscInt)test_size));
518:       PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "  Mean      : %.6f (error: %.6f)\n", (double)sample_mean, (double)PetscAbsReal(sample_mean - mean_target)));
519:       PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "  Std Dev   : %.6f (error: %.6f)\n", (double)sample_std, (double)PetscAbsReal(sample_std - std_target)));
520:       PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "  Skewness  : %.6f (expected ~0 for Gaussian)\n", (double)skewness));
521:       PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "  Kurtosis  : %.6f (expected ~0 for Gaussian)\n", (double)kurtosis));

523:       /* Statistical tests with reasonable tolerances for finite samples */
524:       PetscReal mean_error     = PetscAbsReal(sample_mean - mean_target);
525:       PetscReal std_error      = PetscAbsReal(sample_std - std_target);
526:       PetscReal mean_tolerance = 3.0 * std_target / PetscSqrtReal((PetscReal)test_size); /* 3-sigma rule */
527:       PetscReal std_tolerance  = 0.1 * std_target;                                       /* 10% tolerance for std dev */
528:       PetscReal skew_tolerance = 0.1;                                                    /* Skewness should be near 0 */
529:       PetscReal kurt_tolerance = 0.5;                                                    /* Excess kurtosis should be near 0 */

531:       PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "\nStatistical tests:\n"));
532:       PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "  Mean test     : %s (error %.6f < tolerance %.6f)\n", mean_error < mean_tolerance ? "PASS" : "FAIL", (double)mean_error, (double)mean_tolerance));
533:       PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "  Std dev test  : %s (error %.6f < tolerance %.6f)\n", std_error < std_tolerance ? "PASS" : "FAIL", (double)std_error, (double)std_tolerance));
534:       PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "  Skewness test : %s (|skewness| %.6f < tolerance %.6f)\n", PetscAbsReal(skewness) < skew_tolerance ? "PASS" : "FAIL", (double)PetscAbsReal(skewness), (double)skew_tolerance));
535:       PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "  Kurtosis test : %s (|kurtosis| %.6f < tolerance %.6f)\n", PetscAbsReal(kurtosis) < kurt_tolerance ? "PASS" : "FAIL", (double)PetscAbsReal(kurtosis), (double)kurt_tolerance));

537:       /* Overall test result */
538:       PetscBool all_pass = (mean_error < mean_tolerance) && (std_error < std_tolerance) && (PetscAbsReal(skewness) < skew_tolerance) && (PetscAbsReal(kurtosis) < kurt_tolerance);
539:       PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "\nOverall result: %s\n", all_pass ? "PASS - Distribution is Gaussian" : "FAIL - Distribution may not be Gaussian"));
540:       PetscCall(PetscPrintf(PETSC_COMM_WORLD, "==============================================\n\n"));

542:       PetscCall(VecDestroy(&test_vec));
543:     }
544:   }

546:   /* Cleanup */
547:   PetscCall(MatDestroy(&H));
548:   PetscCall(VecDestroy(&x_forecast));
549:   PetscCall(VecDestroy(&x_mean));
550:   PetscCall(VecDestroy(&obs_error_var));
551:   PetscCall(VecDestroy(&obs_noise));
552:   PetscCall(VecDestroy(&observation));
553:   PetscCall(VecDestroy(&rmse_work));
554:   PetscCall(VecDestroy(&truth_state));
555:   PetscCall(VecDestroy(&x0));
556:   PetscCall(PetscDADestroy(&da));
557:   PetscCall(DMDestroy(&da_state));
558:   PetscCall(Lorenz96ContextDestroy(&l95_ctx));
559:   PetscCall(Lorenz96ContextDestroy(&truth_ctx));
560:   PetscCall(PetscRandomDestroy(&rng));

562:   PetscCall(PetscFinalize());
563:   return 0;
564: }

566: /*TEST

568:   testset:
569:     nsize: 1
570:     args: -steps 112 -burn 10 -obs_freq 1 -obs_error 1 -petscda_view -petscda_ensemble_size 30

572:     test:
573:       requires: !complex
574:       suffix: eigen
575:       args: -petscda_ensemble_sqrt_type eigen

577:     test:
578:       suffix: chol
579:       args: -petscda_ensemble_sqrt_type cholesky

581: TEST*/